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February 2012 MLB Events
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MLB: New York-Minnesota play 1-1/2 games Wednesday
2010-05-26
The New York Yankees have only one win in their last six games, but they’ll have the opportunity to pick up two victories Wednesday. After New York’s first game at Target Field was suspended due to rain, the Yankees and Minnesota Twins will pick up their series opener in the sixth inning before continuing the three-game set with a full game in the evening. In the full second game on tonight’s set, Sportsbook.com shows Minnesota as a -114 home favorite.
Although the Twins (26-18,+2.7 units) were rained out May 7 against Baltimore, Tuesday marked the first time there was a mid-game delay at their new stadium, which opened this year after the team spent 28 seasons playing inside the Metrodome. “You can’t do anything about it,” Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. “Mother Nature decided to water her plants.”
The game was suspended because it was still scoreless when it was stopped after five innings. The bullpens will have to take over after New York’s A.J. Burnett and Minnesota’s Scott Baker each allowed three hits.
The Yankees (26-18,+0.8) were especially in need of strong starting pitching after their staff posted a 5.54 ERA while the team dropped five of its last six. Manager Joe Girardi may have preferred to keep playing. “I didn’t think it was raining too hard to play,” Girardi said.
The Twins have also been scuffling, dropping four of six overall, but they’re 14-7 at home this year and 116-69 over the last three seasons, and maintain a 1 1/2-game lead on second-place Detroit in the AL Central. They’re hoping to harness some momentum from their last game against New York, a 6-3 win at Yankee Stadium on May 16 that was punctuated by Jason Kubel’s go-ahead grand slam off Mariano Rivera
Prior to that game, the Twins had lost 12 straight to New York, including a three-game sweep in last year’s AL division series. The Yankees have won their last four in Minneapolis and have exceptional 53-25 record in the second game of a series.
After the completion of the suspended game, both teams will look for bounce-back efforts from left-handers as Francisco Liriano and Andy Pettitte square off.
Liriano (4-3, 3.25 ERA, 1.272 WHIP) won four straight starts from April 15-May 2, but he’ll be trying to avoid a fourth straight defeat since that stretch. His shortest outing of the season came Thursday night at Boston, where he gave up five runs - including two home runs - in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 defeat. The Twins are 1-6 when Liriano starts against teams with winning records.
While Liriano was better against the Yankees on May 15, yielding three runs in six innings, he still fell to 0-2 in his career against New York because he was outdueled by Pettitte.
Pettitte (5-1, 2.68, 1.252) allowed two hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings in the 7-1 win, remaining unbeaten at the time, but he finally suffered his first loss of 2010 on Friday night against Tampa Bay. The Rays launched three homers off Pettitte, who gave up seven runs - six earned - in five-plus innings in the 8-6 defeat.
Pettitte is 10-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 20 career starts against Minnesota, and he may have been unhappy to see the Twins leave the Metrodome. He went 4-1 with a 2.74 ERA in his final six starts there. The veteran lefty is 18-6 UNDER in road night games the last three seasons.
Sportsbook.com has Minnesota as a -114 money line favorite and the Twins thrive in this spot. The Twins are 14-2 when the ML is -100 to -150 this season, including perfect 9-0 at Target Field. With the total Un9, the Yankees are comfortable they can counter having Pettitte on the hill, since this combination is 26-9 when the total is 8.5 to 10 the previous three years.
This AL showdown will be on ESPN2 just after 7:00 Eastern with the Twinkies 38-16 as favorites. The StatFox Power Line shows Yankees -110
ARIZONA at CHICAGO CUBS
2009-10-02
ARIZONA is 18-40 (-24.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 3.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA at PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 17-19 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
PITTSBURGH is 4-22 (-19.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.4, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 4*)
HOUSTON at NY METS
HOUSTON is 49-28 (+19.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 14-24 (-19.0 Units) against the money line vs. a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.4, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 2*)
MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS
MILWAUKEE is 10-30 (-20.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.8, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 21-8 (+20.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.8, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 5*)
COLORADO at LA DODGERS
COLORADO is 5-16 (-11.7 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game in 2009. The average score was COLORADO 3.6, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
CHI WHITE SOX at DETROIT
DETROIT is 20-26 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of this season. The average score was DETROIT 4.2, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at BALTIMORE
TORONTO is 29-17 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in 2009. The average score was TORONTO 5.3, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at BOSTON
BOSTON is 36-13 (+20.3 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The average score was BOSTON 6.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 4-14 (-11.2 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game in the second half of this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.2, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
KANSAS CITY at MINNESOTA
KANSAS CITY is 13-31 (-15.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.6, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)
LA ANGELS at OAKLAND
LA ANGELS are 21-9 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
TEXAS at SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 31-20 (+16.1 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in 2009. The average score was SEATTLE 4.6, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
MLB Series Betting- Tampa Bay at Kansas City
2009-07-21
The Tampa Bay Rays start the second half of the season believing they can play much better baseball then they did most of the first half of the year. The Rays (48-41, -0.7 units) trail the New York Yankees by four losses in the wild card chase and Boston by seven for the AL East division lead. In some ways, Tampa Bay feels fortunate they are still within reach of the postseason after floundering at or below .500 for the first two months of the season. "We didn't play nearly our best baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We did at times, but a little bit too streaky."
One area that needs immediate shoring up is Tampa’s play on the road. They Rays are 18-26 (-7.8) and the skipper thinks his team is capable of turning this around. “We just have to get out there in the second half. We have to take advantage and not make the same kinds of mistakes that put us in a bind in the first half. We're capable of that. We're capable of playing a higher level of baseball on a more consistent basis." Maddon said.
Kansas City (37-51, -13.9 units) starts the second half having lost five of six and in search of winning formula from last September that fueled this season’s optimism. The Royals first order of business is finding ways to score more runs. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs scored at 3.9 per game and hopes Alex Gordon can provide offensive punch coming off of hip surgery.
Because ace Zach Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA) only pitched one inning in the All-Star game, Royals manager Trey Hillman moved him up to start the series. Greinke hasn’t been quite as effective as he was early in the season, when he was un-hittable and has lost his last two starts, though the 3-1 loss the last time out was in part due to shabby K.C. defense. The Royals are -120 money line favorites at Sportsbook.com, with total 07. Greinke and the Royals are 16-6 when the money line is +125 to -125 and 18-6 UNDER in the second half of the season.
Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields (6-6, 3.42), who is 2-4 on the road, with the Rays winners only twice in his eight starts as visitor. The Rays are off a pair of losses, but have enjoyed great success on Friday’s with 29-11 mark. Shields’ has liked the look of Royals uniform and is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City. He’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against K.C. (32) in the 36 innings he’s worked, while allowing just three free passes. The Rays are 14-3 UNDER July in road games since last year.
Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay
Because of the shifting of Royals rotation, Brian Bannister (6-7, 3.66) is expected to be the starter for Game 2. Bannister is off arguably the best game of his career, throwing seven shutout innings at Boston before tiring slightly in allowing one run on three hits in over 7 2/3 in 3-1 triumph. Coming into the series, Kansas City had won only three of last dozen contests at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s home starts against winning teams and 6-2 if favored.
Only staunch baseball bettors might know this, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Besides pounding out 9.3 hits per game on average, the former Devil Rays have newfound patience as the dish, walking 4.1 times per game, which is third best in baseball, just behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The former masthead of the Rays staff, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 7.11) will take the ball for middle encounter. Since being injured, the lefthander has not been effective, but at least pain-free. Having last won on May 9, Kazmir hopes pitching in a Game 2 situation will turn luck around since he and his teammates are 22-5 in that spot.
Game 2 Edge: Kansas City
The series finale will be afternoon affair. The Rays are 16-13 playing in the light of day, with Kansas City unsightly 12-19. Matt Garza (6-7, 3.73) is one of the American League’s biggest enigmas. Only a handful of hurlers have his stuff, yet he finds a way to have one bad inning and has losing record. He’s 0-4 with 4.02 ERA against K.C. The Royals will send Luke Hochevar (5-3, 5.34) to toe the slap. Since returning in early June for stint in minors, Hochevar has pitched up to his capabilities, with 5-1 record and 3.97 ERA. Besides the quality record, he’s been innings-eater with six of last seven starts lasting as least six innings.
Game 3 Edge: Kansas City
Thought this was a good week to change it up and go with a few teams that don’t receive much of the acclaim. The matchup is very close, but Tampa Bay has poor road record and two of its starters in this series are fumbling along, not pitching well. Similar to a thin slice of pastrami, I’ll support the Royals by the slimmest of margins.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -125, Kansas City -105
StatFox Edge Pick: Kansas City
MLB: Toronto tries to side-step trouble
2009-05-22
One of the prerequisites of being a division leading team that makes the playoffs is to avoid losing streaks. During the course of a 162-game season, the losing bug can grab any team and end up hanging around, the key is to not let it hang around too long. The Toronto Blue Jays have done an excellent job of this in the first quarter of the season, having not lost three games in succession and dropping only three series. They will be tested while looking to avoid being swept tonight in Boston. The BoSox are a hefty -175 favorite. Get the latest info on this A.L. East showdown on the TEAM STATISTICS page.
The Red Sox (24-16, +3.6 units) returned home to Fenway Park after inferior road trip and have taken down Toronto twice, with pitching and power display. Boston hurlers have limited the Blue Jays to four total runs in the first two games. Last night, four different BoSox hitters went yard, including David Ortiz who did so for the first time in 2009.
Once again the Boston bullpen continued to shine and the Red Sox are 10-0 in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last five games. Manager Terry Francona has assigned Jon Lester (2-4, 6.51 ERA, 1.617 WHIP) to lead Toronto’s demise. Lester has allowed 13 runs in 10 innings over his last two outings and will look to avert a third straight loss.
“There will not be a pitcher for the remainder of the season that will work as hard as I will to get to where I was last year," said the Red Sox lefty after 5-4 setback at Seattle on Friday. "It's the little things that are screwing up my outings, and it will turn around." Typically where it turns around is at home, with Lester and Boston 22-5 in home games over the last three seasons.
Toronto (27-16, +10.3) has gotten by this season by being more aggressive at the plate and showing far greater patience when hitting. The Blue Jays have .355 on base percentage, amongst the best in baseball and are sixth in home runs. The genuine surprise has been the starting pitching, thrown together in the spring because of injury.
Among this group is tonight’s starter Robert Ray (1-1, 3.60, 1.100), who won his first major league game his last time out against Chicago, pitching eight innings and not allowing earned run in 2-1 triumph. Right-handed batters are hitting just .229 against Ray and Toronto is 32-17 in May the last two years.
Sportsbook.com has Boston as large -175 money line favorites with total Ov10. The Red Sox are 42-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 28-6 when the total is 10 or higher at Fenway. After all the big bombs last night, Boston is 23-9 UNDER after a game where they had six or more extra base hits. Toronto is 22-11 in road games after scoring three runs or less two straight games and Ray needs to go right after Sox batters since they are 10-20 after slugging five or more home runs in single contest. The Jays are 10-4 OVER as underdogs.
The final game of the series starts at 7:10 Eastern on NESN and MLB.TV, with Toronto having lost three in a row and nine of its last 12 against the Red Sox, including four straight in Boston.
StatFox Power Line – Toronto -107
MLB: Minnesota up against Cliff Lee and Tough System
2008-09-17
There is no need to sugar coat this, the Minnesota Twins were expected to stink this year. They lost their best pitcher in Johan Santana and best everyday player in Torii Hunter. Instead, as often has been the case, Minnesota found a way to surprise us. They’ll continue their quest for the A.L. Central title tonight in Cleveland, facing 22-game winner Cliff Lee.
Twins’ Manager Ron Gardenhire is a baseball fundamentalist, play the game the right way and your chances of winning go exponentially. While most believed Minnesota would be languishing with Kansas City, they have instead been fighting all summer long with the Chicago White Sox to win the AL Central. Unfortunately, the long grind of a 162-game season appears to be catching up with Minnesota, who is 8-15 since August 23 and trails the Chicago by three games in the loss column will just 11 to play. Tonight the challenge is even more foreboding for the Twins.
If Minnesota fails to win the division, the answer will be as clear a gin martini, straight up. The Twins are 82-69, +10.7 units on the year, but has had a great deal of trouble on the road. Here they are 33-43 (-8 units), however it hasn’t been the offense that let them down. On the road, Minnesota averages a healthy 4.9 runs per game, which is second in the American League and sixth overall. No the failures are squarely on the shoulders of the bullpen. Twins non-starters have April-like 5.53 ERA with a 10-17 record. Joe Nathan and others have failed miserably when given the chance to lock up wins as a visitor, converting on 16 of 34 chances for sickly 47.1 percent save percentage. Here is another way to look at this, if Minnesota was merely average in this category, around 70 percent, they would have a four game lead in the AL Central.
The Cleveland Indians ended up being one of the bigger disappointments in baseball in 2007, mostly because they never hit. The 4.9 runs per game has the look of a team that had the ability to score runs, however a truer gauge ended up being the lowly .261 team batting average. Because of the low average, Cleveland was unable to secure wins in closer games, unless they received outstanding pitching. On the season the Tribe is 38-50 in games decided by three runs or less.
Any success in this area has come primarily from Cliff Lee (22-2, 2.36, 1.062 WHIP). The lefthander has had magical season will try to become the first 23-game winner since Barry Zito with Oakland and Curt Schilling with Arizona in 2002. To do so, Lee will have to continue doing what he has done all season in Cleveland, where he is 10-0 with a 2.34 ERA over 13 starts. He will face Scott Baker (9-4, 3.57, 1.204) who has had a nice season in 2008, with the Twins 15-10 when he takes the ball.
This leads directly to a great Super Situation available for tonight’s contest.
PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more, who are a below average hitting team like Cleveland (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less) in the American League, in the second half of the season.
This outstanding system is 80-19, 80.8 percent since 1997. The reason it works is based on deductive reasoning. If a team is a -162 money line favorite, like Cleveland is at Sportsbook.com, there has to be a good reason. Why would team with a low team batting average facing an above average starting pitcher be such a large favorite? The answer in this case is Cliff Lee. This system has carried its weight no problem also, with 20-4 mark since 2004. The average score differential is very comfortable at 2.4 runs per game.
The Indians have won 23 of Lee’s 29 starts and they are 14-3 against the money line vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game this season. With the Twins just 9-28 in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game in the second half of the season the last two years, it might be time to bet the Tribe.
MLB Top Weekend Power Trends
2008-07-18
With the all-star break now in the rear view mirror, Major League Baseball heads full steam into the season’s second half with a jammed slate on tap for the weekend. Several key divisional showdowns are scheduled as well as other series’ between playoff contenders. Here’s a quick look at some of the top action headed our way, followed by a Top StatFox Power Trend from each of the 15 series’. Each of these trends should be in play for all three days this weekend. Find more of this great info each and every day by clicking on the Team Statistics link, then go to the Live Odds page to view the latest series prices.
In the National League, the Mets will look to add to their double-digit win streak when they take on Cincinnati. New York won its 10th straight game by coming from behind in the 9th inning on Thursday to turn back the Reds. Heading into the Friday action, New York suddenly finds itself tied back atop the NL East standings with Philadelphia.
The Phillies, meanwhile, face an important series of their own, at Florida. The Marlins are just 1-1/2 games back in the division race and will look to close out that difference this weekend. They took two out of three at home from Philly in June and will be looking to extend a nice 6-2 stretch prior to the all-star break. However, despite a 26-20 home record, the Marlins have been outscored 5.2-4.3 on the home field. The Phillies have proven to be equally strong at home and away, playing 4-games over .500 in both scenarios.
Elsewhere in the senior circuit, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will go head-to-head in hot Phoenix, with the division lead on the line. One game separates these two sub-.500 clubs at this point, with the hosts DBacks currently occupying the top spot. Including a 3-game sweep at home back in April, Arizona owns a 4-1 record vs. its closest divisional foe in 2008.
In the American League, where teams are still celebrating the prospects of hosting yet another World Series in October, most of the key action is out of the East Division. Boston, Tampa Bay, and New York are each playing in big series’ over the weekend, and the standings could show changes by the time we reach Monday.
Boston is in Los Angeles to take on the league’s best team at this point, the Angels. Ironically, the Halos have played their best ball on the road however, as they are just 26-20 for -1.2 betting units to this point at home. That could be negated by Boston’s road struggles however. The Red Sox are only 21-29 away from Fenway this season, including a horrid 6-17 against teams with a winning record.
In Tampa, the Rays will try to shake off a final week of the first half in which they lost seven straight games to fall back behind the Red Sox in the divisional race. Nothing will look better to Tampa however than the comforts of the Tropicana Dome, where they are a phenomenal 36-14 for +18.3 units. Opponents score just 3.3 runs per game against the Rays in Tampa this season, and this weekend’s visiting club, the Blue Jays, have struggled offensively on the road. Expect things to turn back around for the hosts.
Finally, in New York, the Yankees will begin ushering out their famed stadium when they host the A’s to start the second half. Both clubs are looking up at Tampa in the Wildcard Race and don’t want to lose ground over the next three days. The Bronx Bombers took two of three from Oakland in the Bay Area last month.
Now, here’s a look at a Top StatFox Power Trend from each of this weekend’s 15 series’.
NY METS at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 34-17 OVER (+15.7 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 5.0, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 5-17 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA 3.1, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 23-7 UNDER (+14.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 3*)
CHICAGO CUBS at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 18-5 UNDER (+12.2 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.
The average score was HOUSTON 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN DIEGO at ST LOUIS
SAN DIEGO is 11-28 (-18.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 2*)
PITTSBURGH at COLORADO
PITTSBURGH is 36-55 (-15.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.7, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
LA DODGERS at ARIZONA
LA DODGERS are 53-24 (+26.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
MILWAUKEE at SAN FRANCISCO
MILWAUKEE is 12-23 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.3, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 16-2 UNDER (+13.7 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 3.3, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 4*)
DETROIT at BALTIMORE
DETROIT is 16-6 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
The average score was DETROIT 5.8, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 22-9 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 16-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 3*)
KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX are 22-10 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.1, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)
BOSTON at LA ANGELS
BOSTON is 1-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 3.6, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at SEATTLE
CLEVELAND is 23-9 UNDER (+12.7 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)
2010-05-26
The New York Yankees have only one win in their last six games, but they’ll have the opportunity to pick up two victories Wednesday. After New York’s first game at Target Field was suspended due to rain, the Yankees and Minnesota Twins will pick up their series opener in the sixth inning before continuing the three-game set with a full game in the evening. In the full second game on tonight’s set, Sportsbook.com shows Minnesota as a -114 home favorite.
Although the Twins (26-18,+2.7 units) were rained out May 7 against Baltimore, Tuesday marked the first time there was a mid-game delay at their new stadium, which opened this year after the team spent 28 seasons playing inside the Metrodome. “You can’t do anything about it,” Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. “Mother Nature decided to water her plants.”
The game was suspended because it was still scoreless when it was stopped after five innings. The bullpens will have to take over after New York’s A.J. Burnett and Minnesota’s Scott Baker each allowed three hits.
The Yankees (26-18,+0.8) were especially in need of strong starting pitching after their staff posted a 5.54 ERA while the team dropped five of its last six. Manager Joe Girardi may have preferred to keep playing. “I didn’t think it was raining too hard to play,” Girardi said.
The Twins have also been scuffling, dropping four of six overall, but they’re 14-7 at home this year and 116-69 over the last three seasons, and maintain a 1 1/2-game lead on second-place Detroit in the AL Central. They’re hoping to harness some momentum from their last game against New York, a 6-3 win at Yankee Stadium on May 16 that was punctuated by Jason Kubel’s go-ahead grand slam off Mariano Rivera
Prior to that game, the Twins had lost 12 straight to New York, including a three-game sweep in last year’s AL division series. The Yankees have won their last four in Minneapolis and have exceptional 53-25 record in the second game of a series.
After the completion of the suspended game, both teams will look for bounce-back efforts from left-handers as Francisco Liriano and Andy Pettitte square off.
Liriano (4-3, 3.25 ERA, 1.272 WHIP) won four straight starts from April 15-May 2, but he’ll be trying to avoid a fourth straight defeat since that stretch. His shortest outing of the season came Thursday night at Boston, where he gave up five runs - including two home runs - in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 defeat. The Twins are 1-6 when Liriano starts against teams with winning records.
While Liriano was better against the Yankees on May 15, yielding three runs in six innings, he still fell to 0-2 in his career against New York because he was outdueled by Pettitte.
Pettitte (5-1, 2.68, 1.252) allowed two hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings in the 7-1 win, remaining unbeaten at the time, but he finally suffered his first loss of 2010 on Friday night against Tampa Bay. The Rays launched three homers off Pettitte, who gave up seven runs - six earned - in five-plus innings in the 8-6 defeat.
Pettitte is 10-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 20 career starts against Minnesota, and he may have been unhappy to see the Twins leave the Metrodome. He went 4-1 with a 2.74 ERA in his final six starts there. The veteran lefty is 18-6 UNDER in road night games the last three seasons.
Sportsbook.com has Minnesota as a -114 money line favorite and the Twins thrive in this spot. The Twins are 14-2 when the ML is -100 to -150 this season, including perfect 9-0 at Target Field. With the total Un9, the Yankees are comfortable they can counter having Pettitte on the hill, since this combination is 26-9 when the total is 8.5 to 10 the previous three years.
This AL showdown will be on ESPN2 just after 7:00 Eastern with the Twinkies 38-16 as favorites. The StatFox Power Line shows Yankees -110
ARIZONA at CHICAGO CUBS
2009-10-02
ARIZONA is 18-40 (-24.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 3.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA at PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 17-19 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
PITTSBURGH is 4-22 (-19.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.4, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 4*)
HOUSTON at NY METS
HOUSTON is 49-28 (+19.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 14-24 (-19.0 Units) against the money line vs. a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.4, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 2*)
MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS
MILWAUKEE is 10-30 (-20.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.8, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 21-8 (+20.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.8, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 5*)
COLORADO at LA DODGERS
COLORADO is 5-16 (-11.7 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game in 2009. The average score was COLORADO 3.6, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
CHI WHITE SOX at DETROIT
DETROIT is 20-26 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of this season. The average score was DETROIT 4.2, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at BALTIMORE
TORONTO is 29-17 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in 2009. The average score was TORONTO 5.3, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at BOSTON
BOSTON is 36-13 (+20.3 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The average score was BOSTON 6.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 4-14 (-11.2 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game in the second half of this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.2, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
KANSAS CITY at MINNESOTA
KANSAS CITY is 13-31 (-15.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.6, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)
LA ANGELS at OAKLAND
LA ANGELS are 21-9 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
TEXAS at SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 31-20 (+16.1 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in 2009. The average score was SEATTLE 4.6, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
MLB Series Betting- Tampa Bay at Kansas City
2009-07-21
The Tampa Bay Rays start the second half of the season believing they can play much better baseball then they did most of the first half of the year. The Rays (48-41, -0.7 units) trail the New York Yankees by four losses in the wild card chase and Boston by seven for the AL East division lead. In some ways, Tampa Bay feels fortunate they are still within reach of the postseason after floundering at or below .500 for the first two months of the season. "We didn't play nearly our best baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We did at times, but a little bit too streaky."
One area that needs immediate shoring up is Tampa’s play on the road. They Rays are 18-26 (-7.8) and the skipper thinks his team is capable of turning this around. “We just have to get out there in the second half. We have to take advantage and not make the same kinds of mistakes that put us in a bind in the first half. We're capable of that. We're capable of playing a higher level of baseball on a more consistent basis." Maddon said.
Kansas City (37-51, -13.9 units) starts the second half having lost five of six and in search of winning formula from last September that fueled this season’s optimism. The Royals first order of business is finding ways to score more runs. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs scored at 3.9 per game and hopes Alex Gordon can provide offensive punch coming off of hip surgery.
Because ace Zach Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA) only pitched one inning in the All-Star game, Royals manager Trey Hillman moved him up to start the series. Greinke hasn’t been quite as effective as he was early in the season, when he was un-hittable and has lost his last two starts, though the 3-1 loss the last time out was in part due to shabby K.C. defense. The Royals are -120 money line favorites at Sportsbook.com, with total 07. Greinke and the Royals are 16-6 when the money line is +125 to -125 and 18-6 UNDER in the second half of the season.
Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields (6-6, 3.42), who is 2-4 on the road, with the Rays winners only twice in his eight starts as visitor. The Rays are off a pair of losses, but have enjoyed great success on Friday’s with 29-11 mark. Shields’ has liked the look of Royals uniform and is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City. He’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against K.C. (32) in the 36 innings he’s worked, while allowing just three free passes. The Rays are 14-3 UNDER July in road games since last year.
Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay
Because of the shifting of Royals rotation, Brian Bannister (6-7, 3.66) is expected to be the starter for Game 2. Bannister is off arguably the best game of his career, throwing seven shutout innings at Boston before tiring slightly in allowing one run on three hits in over 7 2/3 in 3-1 triumph. Coming into the series, Kansas City had won only three of last dozen contests at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s home starts against winning teams and 6-2 if favored.
Only staunch baseball bettors might know this, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Besides pounding out 9.3 hits per game on average, the former Devil Rays have newfound patience as the dish, walking 4.1 times per game, which is third best in baseball, just behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The former masthead of the Rays staff, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 7.11) will take the ball for middle encounter. Since being injured, the lefthander has not been effective, but at least pain-free. Having last won on May 9, Kazmir hopes pitching in a Game 2 situation will turn luck around since he and his teammates are 22-5 in that spot.
Game 2 Edge: Kansas City
The series finale will be afternoon affair. The Rays are 16-13 playing in the light of day, with Kansas City unsightly 12-19. Matt Garza (6-7, 3.73) is one of the American League’s biggest enigmas. Only a handful of hurlers have his stuff, yet he finds a way to have one bad inning and has losing record. He’s 0-4 with 4.02 ERA against K.C. The Royals will send Luke Hochevar (5-3, 5.34) to toe the slap. Since returning in early June for stint in minors, Hochevar has pitched up to his capabilities, with 5-1 record and 3.97 ERA. Besides the quality record, he’s been innings-eater with six of last seven starts lasting as least six innings.
Game 3 Edge: Kansas City
Thought this was a good week to change it up and go with a few teams that don’t receive much of the acclaim. The matchup is very close, but Tampa Bay has poor road record and two of its starters in this series are fumbling along, not pitching well. Similar to a thin slice of pastrami, I’ll support the Royals by the slimmest of margins.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -125, Kansas City -105
StatFox Edge Pick: Kansas City
MLB: Toronto tries to side-step trouble
2009-05-22
One of the prerequisites of being a division leading team that makes the playoffs is to avoid losing streaks. During the course of a 162-game season, the losing bug can grab any team and end up hanging around, the key is to not let it hang around too long. The Toronto Blue Jays have done an excellent job of this in the first quarter of the season, having not lost three games in succession and dropping only three series. They will be tested while looking to avoid being swept tonight in Boston. The BoSox are a hefty -175 favorite. Get the latest info on this A.L. East showdown on the TEAM STATISTICS page.
The Red Sox (24-16, +3.6 units) returned home to Fenway Park after inferior road trip and have taken down Toronto twice, with pitching and power display. Boston hurlers have limited the Blue Jays to four total runs in the first two games. Last night, four different BoSox hitters went yard, including David Ortiz who did so for the first time in 2009.
Once again the Boston bullpen continued to shine and the Red Sox are 10-0 in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last five games. Manager Terry Francona has assigned Jon Lester (2-4, 6.51 ERA, 1.617 WHIP) to lead Toronto’s demise. Lester has allowed 13 runs in 10 innings over his last two outings and will look to avert a third straight loss.
“There will not be a pitcher for the remainder of the season that will work as hard as I will to get to where I was last year," said the Red Sox lefty after 5-4 setback at Seattle on Friday. "It's the little things that are screwing up my outings, and it will turn around." Typically where it turns around is at home, with Lester and Boston 22-5 in home games over the last three seasons.
Toronto (27-16, +10.3) has gotten by this season by being more aggressive at the plate and showing far greater patience when hitting. The Blue Jays have .355 on base percentage, amongst the best in baseball and are sixth in home runs. The genuine surprise has been the starting pitching, thrown together in the spring because of injury.
Among this group is tonight’s starter Robert Ray (1-1, 3.60, 1.100), who won his first major league game his last time out against Chicago, pitching eight innings and not allowing earned run in 2-1 triumph. Right-handed batters are hitting just .229 against Ray and Toronto is 32-17 in May the last two years.
Sportsbook.com has Boston as large -175 money line favorites with total Ov10. The Red Sox are 42-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 28-6 when the total is 10 or higher at Fenway. After all the big bombs last night, Boston is 23-9 UNDER after a game where they had six or more extra base hits. Toronto is 22-11 in road games after scoring three runs or less two straight games and Ray needs to go right after Sox batters since they are 10-20 after slugging five or more home runs in single contest. The Jays are 10-4 OVER as underdogs.
The final game of the series starts at 7:10 Eastern on NESN and MLB.TV, with Toronto having lost three in a row and nine of its last 12 against the Red Sox, including four straight in Boston.
StatFox Power Line – Toronto -107
MLB: Minnesota up against Cliff Lee and Tough System
2008-09-17
There is no need to sugar coat this, the Minnesota Twins were expected to stink this year. They lost their best pitcher in Johan Santana and best everyday player in Torii Hunter. Instead, as often has been the case, Minnesota found a way to surprise us. They’ll continue their quest for the A.L. Central title tonight in Cleveland, facing 22-game winner Cliff Lee.
Twins’ Manager Ron Gardenhire is a baseball fundamentalist, play the game the right way and your chances of winning go exponentially. While most believed Minnesota would be languishing with Kansas City, they have instead been fighting all summer long with the Chicago White Sox to win the AL Central. Unfortunately, the long grind of a 162-game season appears to be catching up with Minnesota, who is 8-15 since August 23 and trails the Chicago by three games in the loss column will just 11 to play. Tonight the challenge is even more foreboding for the Twins.
If Minnesota fails to win the division, the answer will be as clear a gin martini, straight up. The Twins are 82-69, +10.7 units on the year, but has had a great deal of trouble on the road. Here they are 33-43 (-8 units), however it hasn’t been the offense that let them down. On the road, Minnesota averages a healthy 4.9 runs per game, which is second in the American League and sixth overall. No the failures are squarely on the shoulders of the bullpen. Twins non-starters have April-like 5.53 ERA with a 10-17 record. Joe Nathan and others have failed miserably when given the chance to lock up wins as a visitor, converting on 16 of 34 chances for sickly 47.1 percent save percentage. Here is another way to look at this, if Minnesota was merely average in this category, around 70 percent, they would have a four game lead in the AL Central.
The Cleveland Indians ended up being one of the bigger disappointments in baseball in 2007, mostly because they never hit. The 4.9 runs per game has the look of a team that had the ability to score runs, however a truer gauge ended up being the lowly .261 team batting average. Because of the low average, Cleveland was unable to secure wins in closer games, unless they received outstanding pitching. On the season the Tribe is 38-50 in games decided by three runs or less.
Any success in this area has come primarily from Cliff Lee (22-2, 2.36, 1.062 WHIP). The lefthander has had magical season will try to become the first 23-game winner since Barry Zito with Oakland and Curt Schilling with Arizona in 2002. To do so, Lee will have to continue doing what he has done all season in Cleveland, where he is 10-0 with a 2.34 ERA over 13 starts. He will face Scott Baker (9-4, 3.57, 1.204) who has had a nice season in 2008, with the Twins 15-10 when he takes the ball.
This leads directly to a great Super Situation available for tonight’s contest.
PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -150 or more, who are a below average hitting team like Cleveland (BA .265 or less), against a good starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less) in the American League, in the second half of the season.
This outstanding system is 80-19, 80.8 percent since 1997. The reason it works is based on deductive reasoning. If a team is a -162 money line favorite, like Cleveland is at Sportsbook.com, there has to be a good reason. Why would team with a low team batting average facing an above average starting pitcher be such a large favorite? The answer in this case is Cliff Lee. This system has carried its weight no problem also, with 20-4 mark since 2004. The average score differential is very comfortable at 2.4 runs per game.
The Indians have won 23 of Lee’s 29 starts and they are 14-3 against the money line vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game this season. With the Twins just 9-28 in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game in the second half of the season the last two years, it might be time to bet the Tribe.
MLB Top Weekend Power Trends
2008-07-18
With the all-star break now in the rear view mirror, Major League Baseball heads full steam into the season’s second half with a jammed slate on tap for the weekend. Several key divisional showdowns are scheduled as well as other series’ between playoff contenders. Here’s a quick look at some of the top action headed our way, followed by a Top StatFox Power Trend from each of the 15 series’. Each of these trends should be in play for all three days this weekend. Find more of this great info each and every day by clicking on the Team Statistics link, then go to the Live Odds page to view the latest series prices.
In the National League, the Mets will look to add to their double-digit win streak when they take on Cincinnati. New York won its 10th straight game by coming from behind in the 9th inning on Thursday to turn back the Reds. Heading into the Friday action, New York suddenly finds itself tied back atop the NL East standings with Philadelphia.
The Phillies, meanwhile, face an important series of their own, at Florida. The Marlins are just 1-1/2 games back in the division race and will look to close out that difference this weekend. They took two out of three at home from Philly in June and will be looking to extend a nice 6-2 stretch prior to the all-star break. However, despite a 26-20 home record, the Marlins have been outscored 5.2-4.3 on the home field. The Phillies have proven to be equally strong at home and away, playing 4-games over .500 in both scenarios.
Elsewhere in the senior circuit, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will go head-to-head in hot Phoenix, with the division lead on the line. One game separates these two sub-.500 clubs at this point, with the hosts DBacks currently occupying the top spot. Including a 3-game sweep at home back in April, Arizona owns a 4-1 record vs. its closest divisional foe in 2008.
In the American League, where teams are still celebrating the prospects of hosting yet another World Series in October, most of the key action is out of the East Division. Boston, Tampa Bay, and New York are each playing in big series’ over the weekend, and the standings could show changes by the time we reach Monday.
Boston is in Los Angeles to take on the league’s best team at this point, the Angels. Ironically, the Halos have played their best ball on the road however, as they are just 26-20 for -1.2 betting units to this point at home. That could be negated by Boston’s road struggles however. The Red Sox are only 21-29 away from Fenway this season, including a horrid 6-17 against teams with a winning record.
In Tampa, the Rays will try to shake off a final week of the first half in which they lost seven straight games to fall back behind the Red Sox in the divisional race. Nothing will look better to Tampa however than the comforts of the Tropicana Dome, where they are a phenomenal 36-14 for +18.3 units. Opponents score just 3.3 runs per game against the Rays in Tampa this season, and this weekend’s visiting club, the Blue Jays, have struggled offensively on the road. Expect things to turn back around for the hosts.
Finally, in New York, the Yankees will begin ushering out their famed stadium when they host the A’s to start the second half. Both clubs are looking up at Tampa in the Wildcard Race and don’t want to lose ground over the next three days. The Bronx Bombers took two of three from Oakland in the Bay Area last month.
Now, here’s a look at a Top StatFox Power Trend from each of this weekend’s 15 series’.
NY METS at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 34-17 OVER (+15.7 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 5.0, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 5-17 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA 3.1, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 23-7 UNDER (+14.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 3*)
CHICAGO CUBS at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 18-5 UNDER (+12.2 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.
The average score was HOUSTON 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN DIEGO at ST LOUIS
SAN DIEGO is 11-28 (-18.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 2*)
PITTSBURGH at COLORADO
PITTSBURGH is 36-55 (-15.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.7, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
LA DODGERS at ARIZONA
LA DODGERS are 53-24 (+26.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
MILWAUKEE at SAN FRANCISCO
MILWAUKEE is 12-23 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.3, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 16-2 UNDER (+13.7 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 3.3, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 4*)
DETROIT at BALTIMORE
DETROIT is 16-6 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
The average score was DETROIT 5.8, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 22-9 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 16-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 3*)
KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX are 22-10 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.1, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)
BOSTON at LA ANGELS
BOSTON is 1-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 3.6, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at SEATTLE
CLEVELAND is 23-9 UNDER (+12.7 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)